With the 2018 season in the rear-view mirror at the start of the 2019 coming up fast, I wanted to talk about the long term prospects of the Boston Red Sox. It is a very Felger & Mazz-ian take, but they’re in some trouble.
2019 should be another stellar season. With the entire starting 9 returning, a full season of Nathan Eovaldi, and the potential addition of a healthy Dustin Pedroia, the only question for this team is the bullpen where they are playing with fire.
They got through the regular season last year with a shaky at best bullpen who pulled it together and was lights out in the postseason. However after losing Joe Kelly and Craig Kimbrel, there are even more questions this year than last, and playing reliever roulette doesn’t usually work once, let alone twice.
But beyond 2019? The front office has a lot of tough decisions to make that will decide the future of this team.
There is no salary cap in MLB, but the luxury tax was put in place to keep teams in check. The Red Sox situation with that luxury task is not pretty, and, without going into too much detail, if they surpass the luxury tax by a certain amount, which they are almost at, their first round pick would be moved back 10 spots.
Even though they haven’t drafted well lately, you still need as good a pick as you can get and if the team is forced to move back in the draft, that doesn’t bode well for their already bleak farm system.
Speaking of their farm system, it went from the best in baseball to the worst in a few seasons. It started when Manuel Margot was traded to the Padres for Craig Kimbrel. That trade worked out for the Sox, as they were in desperate need for a closer and Kimbrel was the best in the game.
Anderson Espinoza, the teams top pitching prospect, was traded for Drew Pomeranz and we all know how that worked out. Dombrowski may have hit his first trade with the Padres out of the park, but followed it up with an absolute stinker of a move.
The main drain of the system came in the form of a Chris Sale trade, with the team trading away top ranked prospect Yoan Moncada, top 20 prospect Michael Kopech, and stud outfiled Luis Basabe to the White Sox. When this trade went down everyone agreed that this trade will be considered a win if the Sox won a World Series with Chris Sale, which they did, and you can’t really complain about the trade. Even if Moncada turns it around and becomes the player he was supposed to be, Kopech returns from Tommy John surgery and becomes a front of the line starter, and Basabe becomes a 25-30/100 guy, they would not have done it in 2018, and the Red Sox wouldn’t have won the world series.
But with the departure of those 5 prospects, paired with the Red Sox scouting department and front office displaying amazing ineptitude when it comes to drafting players, the cupboard is bare. The team had one prospect, Jason Groome, in the top 100, until he too needed Tommy John surgery and fell out of the rankings.
The team needs to start hitting on some of their draft picks, because they’re about to start losing some important pieces.
With Mookie Betts up after next season, he is the teams top priority. With the market already set, he is going to command at least 350 million dollars. He’s worth every penny, sure, but that’s a lot of money. Earlier today he said he doesn’t expect to sign an extension and hit free agency, which doesn’t bode well for Sox fans. If they think he’s going to leave do they consider trading Mookie after this season for a boatload of prospects and revamp their minor league system? It sounds crazy but not impossible.
Chris Sale is also a free agent after this year, and ownership has made it clear they want him back in Boston. One of the best pitchers in the game, Sale took a team friendly deal 6 years ago and has been underpaid ever since. He’s going to want 200 million at least, and at the age of 30 with a history of fading in the second half of the season, are you comfortable signing him to that deal? Had David Price, who dunked on his doubters with his stellar postseason, opted into the remaining four years of his deal which will pay him around 32 million a season until he is 37 years old. He’s still a very good pitcher, but pitchers fade with age, and Price is close to that wall. Had he opted out I would be far less hesitant to invest in Sale, who is both younger and better, but investing close to 400 million to two pitchers is a questionable decision when they both have their own issues.
The third member of the pitching staff that has been up and down from season-to-season, Rick Porcello, is also up at the end of this season. I love Porcello. The entire city does. Guy pitched his ass off in the playoffs and was a weapon coming out of the bullpen. But they simply don’t have the money to pay him if they intend to pay Chris Sale. I highly doubt he is back in Boston after this season.
Then we get get to Xander Bogaerts. X had his been season last year, hitting 30/100 and continuing his stellar play in the field. Even with the influx of young, stud shortstops around the league, Xander is still a top-10 shortstop and will want to be paid as such. He will be looking for a contract in the 200-250 million range, and if the Sox want to afford Mookie and Sale, well, I don’t think Xander will be back. That leaves a gigantic hole at the most important position in the field with no prospect ready to fill the void. I have no idea what they would do if Xander left, so maybe they do sign him and figure it out later.
Luckily for the Sox both Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers are under team control for the next 5 years and don’t have to be dealt with right this second.
With Jackie Bradley set to hit free agency as well, this roster could look completely different after this 2019 campaign. We could be looking at a team without Xander, without Rick Porcello, without Jackie Bradley, and if they decide to go nuclear with it, without Mookie Betts.
Personally, I think they resign Mookie whether they offer him an extension he cant refuse or come in as the highest bidder in free agency, and go through a few down years while the farm is rebuilt. If they bring him back they still have him, Benny, and Devers to build around, and that’s not the worst position to be in.
2019 will be the close of the window that was opened when the team traded for Sale before the 2017 season. After this season the team could enter an era that, while not as bad as the 2012, 2014, and 2015 seasons, won’t be great. But they won last year, and if they can somehow repeat this season, it will all be worth it. Enjoy the 2019 campaign, because it may be the last good season at Fenway for a while.
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