As a Red Sox fan when I saw Mike Trouts contract announced earlier today my mind immediately turned to Mookie Betts. With one year left after this upcoming season, Mookie will be the most coveted free agent of his class, and garner a contract that will be one of the richest of all time.
After his 2016 campaign where he finished second in MVP voting to Trout, fans of the Red Sox and baseball pundits across the country started to put Betts name up there with Trout as one of, if not the best player in the game. After a down year in 2017, Mookie came back in 2018 and had the best year of his career, earning MVP honors and cementing himself as one of the top 5 players in baseball.
Yes, last year he was better than Trout. No, he is not better than Trout overall. Still, he is going to get paid closer to what he got than what Harper got. Bryce Harper signed a 10 year, 330 million dollar contract and Trouts is a 12 year pact for 430 million. What will the Red Sox have to do to keep him?
They’ve approached Mookie several times about an extension and each time he has said no. You cant blame him, as he’s trying to maximize his earnings by hitting the open market. However, after last offseason and especially this offseason, does he change his tone? Harper was supposed to get the 400 million dollar contract and came up well short. Machado was rumored to get 350 million and ended up with 300. Guys like Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Kuechel, two fantastic pitchers, are still free agents, with many of their counterparts both last year and this, receiving below market deals or accepting one year offers to hit the open market again. If the Red Sox approach him now about an extension it could happen.
If we look at Machado, Harper, and Trout’s contracts, compared to their age, we can make an educated guess as to what the Red Sox would need to offer Betts to get him to ink a new deal. Machado and Harper are both 26, while Trout is 27, and signed the three biggest deals in baseball history. Mookie is 26 now, and if he were to play out his arbitration years and hit the open market, he would be 28. Not old, but now as young as those three and in particular the two free agents in Harper and Machado.
It would behoove him to sign a deal now because he will get more years and more money. Harper signed the richer deal and plays the same position, but Mookie is a far better and more complete player. His AAV is 33, where Trout’s is 36. If a 10 year, 360 million dollar deal was put in front of him today, I don’t see how he doesn’t sign. It’s more money and a higher AAV than Harper, and although less total dollars than Trout, it puts him at the same per year figure. He may think he is on Trouts level and he should, he’s a competitor, but he won’t get those extra two years Trout did because he is one of the best baseball players of all time. A ten year deal puts him through his age 36 season and if he wants to keep playing after that, could (probably) squeeze out another 30 or so million on a two year deal.
If I’m the Sox I make him that offer right now and secure the best player on your team for the future. With the way this team is constructed their window is small and when the rebuild inevitably starts, you need a cornerstone piece to build around. Mookie is that guy and should be your marquee player for the next 10 years.
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