A week removed from winning Super Bowl 53 with the confetti swept from the streets of Boston, reality has set in regards to the 2019 New England Patriots. There are questions to be asked, decisions to be made, and a nation of heart strings to be pulled. So, where do we go from here?
Offense:
- Tom Brady- If you haven’t heard, Tom will be 42 by the time the season starts and is in the last year of his contract which carries a 27 million dollar cap hit. We know he wants to play until he’s 45, and he’s shown no signs of slowing down despite what you hear. Compared to his MVP year in 2017, his completion percentage was just .5% lower, but still 1.8% above his career average. And if you take out his two lowest passer ratings of the season, he has a 102.2 rating, virtually identical to his MVP campaign. Mind you, he did all this without his best receiver for 4 games, a bum knee, and an over-dependance on the least dependable player in the NFL with Josh Gordon. Extend his contract for another two years and lower his cap hit for this year.
- Wide Receiver- To nobody’s surprise, the noise surrounding the team is the need to restock their receiving core, and the noise isn’t wrong. The details of how to stock the cupboard is. Again, we are hearing the need for an outside the numbers, deep threat receiver. We hear this every year and every year the team finds itself in the final 4 and, often times, in the final 2. If you want to argue that fine. Wait on Josh Gordon, as he could be reinstated in May and is still under contract. We also hear the need to take a receiver early and develop him. No thanks. The track record of drafting receivers is well known, as is Bill’s open disregard for the notion you need to invest heavily into a “big time” receiver. Besides, you just lost your receivers coach for the last decade. Do you really want to burden whoever is appointed in his place with a first round pick receiver in his first year? And when has this offense ever been predicated on an outside receiver? 07? Even then you could argue the offense ran through Welker. What they need is quick receivers that can create separation and move horizontally. Maybe Berrios can develop into that. Maybe they take a late round flyer on Hunter Renfrow or a receiver in that nature. I can guarantee that they do not trade for Julio Jones like some are saying. Go get a few receivers that are cerebral, quick receivers that can get on the same page as 12 and they’ll be golden.
- Tight End- What happens with Gronk? We have all been operating under the impression he is going to retire, and rightfully so. However, what if he doesn’t? At a cap hit of 12 million, the team will want that reduced. Will he come back, yet again, at a reduced cap number after openly talking about the abuse he has taken and the toll it has on his body, physically and mentally? Probably not. But if he still wants to play he will only play with Tom. Maybe there’s a scenario where Tom takes a little less so Gronk can still get his and everybody is happy. But lets say he does retire. The draft is very top heavy with tight ends, with 3 potential first rounders coming out. Unlike receiver, Bill has shown his willingness to invest high in TE’s with Watson, Graham, and Gronk. I would love to see them draft Irv Smith, even if Gronk stays, to develop him. Dwayne Allen will be back, but with a much lower salary. He’s a respected voice and leader in the locker room who enjoys playing here. But 7 million for him is laughable. If he were to be open to a 2.5 million salary, something comparable to what he would likely receiver on the open market, he’d be welcome back. Lastly, Hollister can’t stay healthy. I want to believe he will be a vital piece to next year but it’s more likely he tears his hamstring in OTA’s and is cut.
- Offensive Line- I would love to have Trent Brown back. He was fantastic this year. But, in all likelihood, he’s gone. He will command north of 13 million annually, as he should, and Bill wont match that. However, another reason I think plays into him not coming back is Isiah Wynn. Say Brown does resign. You’d have to assume they extend Thuney the way his career has begun. That would mean the entire line is locked up through 2021, leaving Wynn on the last year of his contract. Do you want to have a first round pick be a backup or spot starter the entirety of his contract? Bill isn’t afraid to whiff on picks, but at least they play. I think Wynn is your starting LT next year.
- Running Back- Not much to say here. Position is as strong as its been since Bill took over. The only question is do they bring back Jeremy Hill? Probably not, but could be helpful for camp.
That’s the breakdown on the offensive side. Watch out for the defensive forecast tomorrow.
Bowles' Blog 